{"id":78634,"date":"2022-08-24T14:09:01","date_gmt":"2022-08-24T14:09:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/?p=78634"},"modified":"2022-12-15T00:12:32","modified_gmt":"2022-12-15T00:12:32","slug":"is-transformative-ai-coming-sooner-than-we-thought","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/2022\/08\/is-transformative-ai-coming-sooner-than-we-thought\/","title":{"rendered":"Do recent breakthroughs mean transformative AI is coming sooner than we&nbsp;thought?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Is transformative AI coming sooner than we thought?<\/p>\n<p>It seems like it probably is, which would mean that work to ensure this transformation goes well (rather than <a href=\"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20220814141249\/https:\/\/www.cold-takes.com\/ai-could-defeat-all-of-us-combined\/\">disastrously<\/a>) is even more urgent than we thought.<\/p>\n<p>In the last six months, there have been some shocking AI advances:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20220814141410\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/xuenay\/status\/1511246753592393731\">PaLM exhibited human-level ability to explain jokes<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20220814141513\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/sama\/status\/1511715302265942024\">DALL-E 2 can interpret artistic styles<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20220814141600\/https:\/\/twitter.com\/andyzengtweets\/status\/1512089759497269251\">Socratic models can combine &#8220;common sense&#8221; across domains<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>This caused the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.metaculus.com\/questions\/5121\/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence\/\">live forecast on Metaculus<\/a> for when &#8220;artificial general intelligence&#8221; will arrive to plunge \u2014 the median declined 15 years, from 2055 to 2040.<\/p>\n<p>You might think this was due to random people on the internet over-updating on salient evidence, but if you put greater weight on the forecasters who have made the most accurate forecasts in the past, the decline was still 11 years.<\/p>\n<p>Last year, Jacob Steinhardt <a href=\"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20220816171603\/https:\/\/bounded-regret.ghost.io\/ai-forecasting\/\">commissioned professional forecasters<\/a> to make a five-year forecast on three AI capabilities benchmarks. His initial impression was that the forecasts were aggressive, but one year in, <a href=\"https:\/\/bounded-regret.ghost.io\/ai-forecasting-one-year-in\/\">actual progress was ahead of predictions<\/a> on all three benchmarks.<\/p>\n<p>Particularly shocking were the results on a benchmark of difficult high school maths problems. The state-of-the-art model leapt from a score of 7% to 50% in just one year \u2014 more than five years of predicted progress. (And these questions were <em>hard<\/em> \u2014 e.g. a Berkeley PhD student scored ~75%.)<\/p>\n<p>I recently did an informal poll of people I trust who are interested in the AI safety field.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Several reported no change to their estimates on when <a href=\"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20220814141021\/https:\/\/www.openphilanthropy.org\/research\/some-background-on-our-views-regarding-advanced-artificial-intelligence\/\">transformative AI<\/a> would arrive.<\/li>\n<li>Several reported a small decrease.<\/li>\n<li>Two reported significant decreases (here is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lesswrong.com\/posts\/AfH2oPHCApdKicM4m\/two-year-update-on-my-personal-ai-timelines\">one public example<\/a>). <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>So people&#8217;s timelines are clearly shortening overall. My sense is that the average estimate of these &#8220;insiders&#8221; has declined by 2\u20135 years at the median. This is less than the 11-year decline on Metaculus, because (in part) the broader Metaculus group has moved towards the already more aggressive views of the &#8220;insider&#8221; group.<\/p>\n<p>Where does all this leave us?<\/p>\n<p>I think the best overall review of how to forecast AI is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cold-takes.com\/where-ai-forecasting-stands-today\/\">this article by Holden Karnofsky<\/a> from September 2021. At that point, he estimated a ~50% chance we&#8217;ll see transformative AI within 40 years (by 2060).<\/p>\n<p>But since all the updates above happened after September, I would now personally guess that the timeline is shorter than that.<\/p>\n<p>If I were forced to name a figure (mainly based on combining the views of people I trust), I&#8217;d say there&#8217;s a 50% chance that transformative AI has arrived by somewhere between 2040 and 2050.<\/p>\n<p>What really matters is not the exact year or probability, but that there&#8217;s a significant chance that AI totally changes the world in our lifetimes. And by &#8220;totally changes,&#8221; I mean makes things <a href=\"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20220816172511\/https:\/\/www.cold-takes.com\/the-duplicator\/\">much weirder than almost all sci-fi<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Perhaps more importantly, it&#8217;s hard to rule out, say, a 10% chance of transformative AI arriving within the next 10 years.<\/p>\n<p>If handled well, this transformation could bring about abundance and prosperity for everyone. But in the worst case, we could <a href=\"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20220814141249\/https:\/\/www.cold-takes.com\/ai-could-defeat-all-of-us-combined\/\">lose control<\/a> of the AI systems themselves. Unable to govern beings with capabilities far greater than our own, we might find ourselves with as little control over our future as chimpanzees have over theirs.<\/p>\n<p>This is a strange and overwhelming situation, and one that I don&#8217;t feel like I&#8217;ve fully internalised myself.<\/p>\n<p>But if you&#8217;re interested in doing something about it, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cold-takes.com\/call-to-vigilance\/\">this &#8220;call to vigilance&#8221;<\/a> is a good place to start. You can also check out a list of <a href=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/topic\/world-problems\/most-pressing-problems\/artificial-intelligence\/\">all our relevant articles and podcasts<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Our <a href=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/speak-with-us\/?int_campaign=2022-08__ai-timelines-blog\">one-on-one team<\/a> has also helped lots of people find jobs working on AI safety, and not just within technical positions. For instance, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/jonasschuett\/status\/1505194051594821634\">Jonas Schuett<\/a> used his background as a lawyer to help found the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.legalpriorities.org\/\">Legal Priorities Project<\/a> and advise the UK government on AI.<\/p>\n<div class=\"well bg-gray-lighter margin-bottom margin-top padding-top-small padding-bottom-small\">\n<h2>Want to pursue a career in AI safety?<\/h2>\n<p>If you think that helping the transition to transformative AI go well might be a career option for you, we&#8217;d be excited to advise you on next steps, one-on-one. We can help you consider your options, make connections with others working in the same field, and possibly even help you find jobs or funding opportunities \u2014 all for free.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"\/speak-with-us\/?int_campaign=2022-08__ai-timelines-blog\" title=\"\" class=\"btn btn-primary\">Apply to speak with our team<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1181],"class_list":["post-78634","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-artificial-intelligence"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Do recent breakthroughs mean transformative AI is coming sooner than we thought? - 80,000 Hours<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"If transformative AI is coming sooner than expected, work to ensure this transformation goes well (rather than disastrously) is even more urgent.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/2022\/08\/is-transformative-ai-coming-sooner-than-we-thought\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Do recent breakthroughs mean transformative AI is coming sooner than we thought?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"If transformative AI is coming sooner than expected, work to ensure this transformation goes well (rather than disastrously) is even more urgent.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/2022\/08\/is-transformative-ai-coming-sooner-than-we-thought\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"80,000 Hours\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/80000Hours\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-08-24T14:09:01+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-12-15T00:12:32+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/dalle2.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"900\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"900\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Benjamin Todd\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@80000hours\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@80000hours\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Benjamin Todd\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/2022\/08\/is-transformative-ai-coming-sooner-than-we-thought\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/2022\/08\/is-transformative-ai-coming-sooner-than-we-thought\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Benjamin Todd\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/#\/schema\/person\/a8603d1fe70a0a3de2c88b997d288bbe\"},\"headline\":\"Do recent breakthroughs mean transformative AI is coming sooner than we&nbsp;thought?\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-08-24T14:09:01+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-12-15T00:12:32+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/2022\/08\/is-transformative-ai-coming-sooner-than-we-thought\/\"},\"wordCount\":715,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/#organization\"},\"articleSection\":[\"Artificial Intelligence\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/2022\/08\/is-transformative-ai-coming-sooner-than-we-thought\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/2022\/08\/is-transformative-ai-coming-sooner-than-we-thought\/\",\"name\":\"Do recent breakthroughs mean transformative AI is coming sooner than we thought? 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