{"id":77580,"date":"2022-09-01T11:23:14","date_gmt":"2022-09-01T11:23:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/?post_type=problem_profile&#038;p=77580"},"modified":"2024-03-21T20:34:56","modified_gmt":"2024-03-21T20:34:56","slug":"civilisation-resilience","status":"publish","type":"problem_profile","link":"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/problem-profiles\/civilisation-resilience\/","title":{"rendered":"Civilisation resilience"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"toc_container\" class=\"toc_white no_bullets\"><p class=\"toc_title\">Table of Contents<\/p><ul class=\"toc_list\"><li><a href=\"#why-might-civilisation-resilience-be-an-especially-pressing-issue\"><span class=\"toc_number toc_depth_1\">1<\/span> Why might civilisation resilience be an especially pressing issue?<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#learn-more-about-civilisation-resilience\"><span class=\"toc_number toc_depth_1\">2<\/span> Learn more about civilisation resilience<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n<h2><span id=\"why-might-civilisation-resilience-be-an-especially-pressing-issue\" class=\"toc-anchor\"><\/span>Why might civilisation resilience be an especially pressing issue?<\/h2>\n<p>If a catastrophe happens, we might be able to take action to significantly increase the chance that civilisation survives or gets rebuilt &#8212; allowing us the possibility of a long and flourishing future.<\/p>\n<p>However, measures in this space receive very little attention today.<\/p>\n<p>A <a href=\"https:\/\/forum.effectivealtruism.org\/posts\/GsjmufaebreiaivF7\/what-is-the-likelihood-that-civilizational-collapse-would\">recent investigation<\/a> by Luisa Rodriguez suggests that recovery from even the worst catastrophes \u2014 if they fall short of killing everyone \u2014 is relatively likely.<\/p>\n<p>For example, even if a nuclear disaster and resulting nuclear winter caused the deaths of 90\u201399.99% of people, she estimates we&#8217;d still be ~90\u201397% likely to recover eventually. In short, this is because:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Different populations would be spread out geographically and some would be less affected than others. There would be numerous groups, and as time went on, some groups would likely find the means to survive even if others died out. (That is, groups would be separated and thus their fates &#8216;decorrelated.&#8217;)<\/li>\n<li>It seems like survivors would be able to subsist long enough to get back on their feet, given that humanity survived for thousands years without technology or society, and survivors would have access to supplies and memories left over from civilisation (which early humans didn&#8217;t).<\/li>\n<li>Non-traditional agriculture (e.g. cultivating and eating algae) would likely be feasible, helping humanity survive the nuclear winter.<\/li>\n<li>The minimal viable population for genetic diversity (and even the survival of basic technological and social knowledge) is very small compared to the population of Earth.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>(<a href=\"https:\/\/forum.effectivealtruism.org\/posts\/GsjmufaebreiaivF7\/what-is-the-likelihood-that-civilizational-collapse-would\">Read the full report<\/a>.)<\/p>\n<p>That said, there has been <em>very<\/em> little research on this topic, so this could all be mistaken. And there does seem to be a lot we could do to increase our chances of survival after a collapse \u2014 e.g. developing alternative foods, or refuges to shield some people from the catastrophic event \u2014 so we think this is a promising area for more work.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"learn-more-about-civilisation-resilience\" class=\"toc-anchor\"><\/span>Learn more about civilisation resilience<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Podcast: <a href=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/podcast\/episodes\/luisa-rodriguez-why-global-catastrophes-seem-unlikely-to-kill-us-all\/\">Luisa Rodriguez on why global catastrophes seem unlikely to kill us all<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Podcast: <a href=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/podcast\/episodes\/david-denkenberger-allfed-and-feeding-everyone-no-matter-what\/\">We could feed all eight billion people through a nuclear winter. Dr David Denkenberger is working to make it practical<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20181231185118\/https:\/\/www.fhi.ox.ac.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-s2.0-S0016328714001888-main.pdf\">How much could refuges help us recover from a global<br \/>\ncatastrophe?<\/a> by Nick Beckstead<\/li>\n<li>Podcast: <a href=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/podcast\/episodes\/lewis-dartnell-getting-humanity-to-bounce-back-faster\/\">Lewis Dartnell on getting humanity to bounce back faster in a post-apocalyptic world<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Podcast: <a href=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/podcast\/episodes\/david-denkenberger-sahil-shah-using-paper-mills-and-seaweed-in-catastrophes\/\">David Denkenberger on using paper mills and seaweed to feed everyone in a catastrophe, ft Sahil Shah<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Podcast: <a href=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/after-hours-podcast\/episodes\/christian-ruhl-nuclear-catastrophic-risks-philanthropy\/\">Christian Ruhl on why we&#8217;re entering a new nuclear age \u2014 and how to reduce the risks<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"tw--mt-6 tw--p-3 tw--pt-2 tw--bg-gray-lighter tw--rounded-md \">\n<h3 class=\"no-toc\">\t\t<a class=\"no-visited-styling tw--text-off-black hover:tw--text-off-black hover:tw--no-underline focus:tw--text-off-black\" href=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/problem-profiles\/\">\t\t\t<small>Read next:&nbsp;<\/small>\t\t\tExplore other pressing world problems\t\t<\/a>\t<\/h3>\n<div class=\"tw--grid xs:tw--grid-flow-col tw--gap-3\">\n<div class=\"xs:tw--order-last tw--pt-1\">\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/problem-profiles\/\">\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/sea-ocean-sky-night-cosmos-view-826635-pxhere.com_-720x448.jpg\" alt=\"Decorative post preview\" width=\"720\" height=\"448\">\t\t\t<\/a>\t\t<\/div>\n<div class=\"\">\n<div class=\"tw--pb-3\">\n<p>Want to learn more about global issues we think are especially pressing? See our list of issues that are large in scale, solvable, and neglected, according to our research.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"\">\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/problem-profiles\/\" class=\"btn btn-primary\">Continue &rarr;<\/a>\t\t\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"well visible-if-not-newsletter-subscriber margin-bottom margin-top padding-top-small padding-bottom-small\">\n<h3 class=\"no-toc\">Plus, join our newsletter and we&#8217;ll mail you a free book<\/h3>\n<p>Join our newsletter and we&#8217;ll send you a free copy of <em>The Precipice<\/em> \u2014 a book by philosopher Toby Ord about how to tackle the greatest threats facing humanity. <a href=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/free-book\/#giveaway-terms\">T&#038;Cs here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<form data-80k-object-id=\"\" data-80k-form-action=\"newsletter__subscribe\" action=\"\/\" method=\"post\" class=\"form-newsletter-signup form-newsletter-signup-step-1 margin-bottom-smaller\">\n<div class=\"mc-field-group input-group compact-input-group \"> <input type=\"email\" value=\"\" name=\"email\" required class=\"form-control email\" placeholder=\"Email address\" id=\"input_email\"> <span class=\"submit input-group-btn input-group-btn-right\"> <input type=\"submit\" id=\"mc-embedded-subscribe\" value=\"GET THE BOOK\" class=\"btn btn-primary \" \/> <\/span> <\/div>\n<div> <input name=\"_eightyk_action\" value=\"mailchimp_add_subscriber\" type=\"hidden\"> <input name=\"redirect_path_after_step_2\" value=\"\/newsletter\/welcome\/\" type=\"hidden\"> <\/div>\n<div style=\"position: absolute; left: -5000px;\"> <input type=\"text\" name=\"b_abc12f58bbe8075560abdc5b7_43bc1ae55c\" tabindex=\"-1\" value=\"\"> <\/div>\n<\/form>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":408,"featured_media":78268,"parent":0,"menu_order":8,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[368,291],"class_list":["post-77580","problem_profile","type-problem_profile","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-existential-risk","category-world-problems"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.3 - 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