{"id":74447,"date":"2021-10-19T16:01:24","date_gmt":"2021-10-19T16:01:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/?post_type=career_profile&#038;p=74447"},"modified":"2024-11-25T19:06:57","modified_gmt":"2024-11-25T19:06:57","slug":"forecasting","status":"publish","type":"career_profile","link":"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/career-reviews\/forecasting\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecasting and related research and implementation"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"panel clearfix \">\n<p><strong>In a nutshell:<\/strong> Small groups of decision-makers in governments and other institutions sometimes have to make extremely difficult judgement calls on high-stakes matters, like  global catastrophic risks or the development or deployment of emerging technologies. But human judgement is often biased, and decision-makers don&#8217;t always follow the right processes. We&#8217;ve seen evidence that it&#8217;s possible to use rigorous forecasting techniques to improve our ability to predict future events, and by extension, to make good decisions. We&#8217;d like to see more people doing research into forecasting and other methods for improving institutional decision-making, as well as putting those methods into practice at important institutions.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"border tw--rounded-md tw--mb-8\" >\n<div class=\"tw--bg-off-white tw--px-3.5 tw--py-5\">\n<h3 class=\"no-toc\"> Recommended<\/h3>\n<p>If you are well suited to this career, it may be the best way for you to have a social impact.\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"tw--px-3.5 tw--py-5\">\n<h4 class=\"tw--text-base\">Review status<\/h4>\n<p>Based on a medium-depth investigation&nbsp;<i class=\n                  \"fas fa-question-circle text-primary icon-tooltip career-tooltip\" data-placement=\"right\"\n                  data-toggle=\"tooltip\" title=\n                  \"This review is informed by people with expertise about this path, an understanding of the best existing advice, and an in-depth investigation into at least one of our key uncertainties concerning this path. Some of our views will be thoroughly researched, though it&#039;s likely there remains some gaps in our understanding.\"><br \/>\n                  <\/i><\/p><\/div><\/div>\n<div id=\"toc_container\" class=\"toc_white no_bullets\"><p class=\"toc_title\">Table of Contents<\/p><ul class=\"toc_list\"><li><a href=\"#why-might-forecasting-research-and-implementation-be-high-impact\"><span class=\"toc_number toc_depth_1\">1<\/span> Why might forecasting research and implementation be high impact?<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#what-does-this-path-involve\"><span class=\"toc_number toc_depth_1\">2<\/span> What does this path involve?<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#examples-of-people-pursuing-this-path\"><span class=\"toc_number toc_depth_1\">3<\/span> Examples of people pursuing this path<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#how-to-assess-your-fit\"><span class=\"toc_number toc_depth_1\">4<\/span> How to assess your fit?<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#how-to-enter\"><span class=\"toc_number toc_depth_1\">5<\/span> How to enter<\/a><ul><li><a href=\"#recommended-organisations\"><span class=\"toc_number toc_depth_2\">5.1<\/span> Recommended organisations<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#want-one-on-one-advice-on-pursuing-this-path\"><span class=\"toc_number toc_depth_2\">5.2<\/span> Want one-on-one advice on pursuing this path?<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#find-jobs-in-forecasting-research-and-implementation\"><span class=\"toc_number toc_depth_2\">5.3<\/span> Find jobs in forecasting research and implementation<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li><a href=\"#learn-more\"><span class=\"toc_number toc_depth_1\">6<\/span> Learn more<\/a><ul><li><a href=\"#top-recommendations\"><span class=\"toc_number toc_depth_2\">6.1<\/span> Top recommendations<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#further-recommendations\"><span class=\"toc_number toc_depth_2\">6.2<\/span> Further recommendations<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n<h2><span id=\"why-might-forecasting-research-and-implementation-be-high-impact\" class=\"toc-anchor\"><\/span>Why might forecasting research and implementation be high impact?<\/h2>\n<p>Governments and other important institutions frequently have to make complex, high-stakes decisions based on judgement calls, often from just a handful of people. There&#8217;s reason to believe that human judgements can be flawed in a number of ways, but can be substantially improved using more systematic processes and techniques. One of the most promising areas we&#8217;ve seen is using more rigorous forecasting methods to make better predictions about important future events. Improving the quality of foresight and decision-making in important institutions could improve our ability to solve almost all other problems.<\/p>\n<p>We&#8217;d like to help form a new community of researchers and practitioners who develop <em>and<\/em> implement these techniques. We&#8217;re especially keen to help people who want to work on the areas most relevant to global catastrophic risks, such as nuclear security, AI, and biorisk.<\/p>\n<p>Note that we&#8217;re not talking about the popular &#8216;nudge&#8217; work in behavioural sciences, which is focused on making small improvements to personal behaviours. Rather, we&#8217;re interested in neglected work relevant to high-stakes decisions like whether to go to war, such as <a href=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/2017\/11\/prof-tetlock-predicting-the-future\/\">Tetlock&#8217;s research into forecasting<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"what-does-this-path-involve\" class=\"toc-anchor\"><\/span>What does this path involve?<\/h2>\n<p>There are two main options in this path:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Developing better forecasting and decision-making techniques, and testing those that already exist.<\/li>\n<li>Applying the most effective techniques in important organisations, especially those working on catastrophic risks.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><strong>Developing better techniques and testing existing ones:<\/strong><br \/>\nThis means doing research to:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Develop new techniques and approaches to improve judgement and decision-making, and then testing them.<\/li>\n<li>Getting stronger evidence about whether techniques that already exist are actually effective and in what circumstances, such as <a href=\"http:\/\/www.openphilanthropy.org\/blog\/efforts-improve-accuracy-our-judgments-and-forecasts#Calibration_training\">calibration training<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20170821013906\/http:\/\/www.analysis.org\/structured-analytic-techniques.pdf\">structured analytic techniques<\/a>, methods of aggregating expert judgements like <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Structured_expert_judgment:_the_classical_model\">Roger Cooke&#8217;s Classical Model for Structured Expert Judgement<\/a>, and the <a href=\"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20180808144450\/https:\/\/pareonline.net\/pdf\/v12n10.pdf\">Delphi method<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Practically speaking, this probably means trying to get a position at a behavioural science research lab interested in working on these kinds of questions (which would very likely require getting a PhD in psychology or related area of behavioural science).<\/p>\n<p><strong>Getting the best proven techniques adopted in high-impact areas:<\/strong><br \/>\nSomeone trying to get proven techniques implemented might start by working in the types of organisations for which improved decision-making is especially important. This is because knowing which changes will have the biggest impact and which are most feasible will require a deep understanding of the practical constraints and incentives of different groups working on important problems.<\/p>\n<p>Alternatively, you could also try to test and implement improved decision-making techniques in a range of organisations as a consultant (for example, at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bi.team\/\">The Behavioural Insights Team<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ideas42.org\/\">ideas42<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hubbardresearch.com\/about\/\">Hubbard Decision Research<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.goodjudgment.com\">Good Judgment<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/hypermind.com\/\">Hypermind<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p>You can also consider being an advocate for the adoption of better practices across government and organisations, or for improved decision-making more generally by working as a <a href=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/career-reviews\/become-a-journalist\/\">journalist<\/a> or <a href=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/career-reviews\/public-intellectual\/\">public intellectual<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Read more about what these options look like in our problem profile on <a href=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/problem-profiles\/improving-institutional-decision-making\/#what-can-you-do-in-this-area\">improving institutional decision-making<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"examples-of-people-pursuing-this-path\" class=\"toc-anchor\"><\/span>Examples of people pursuing this path<\/h2>\n<aside class=\"well well-person pull-right clearfix align-center  padding-top-small padding-bottom-small\">\n<p class=\"no-margin-bottom\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"img-circle well-person__portrait\" height=300 width=300 src=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Danny-FB-1401x1401-1.jpg\" alt=\"Danny Hernandez portrait\"><\/p>\n<h4 class=\"no-margin-top\">Danny Hernandez<\/h4>\n<p>Danny was an early data scientist at Twitch, where he made prediction training popular and helped the company better manage their planning after reading Phil Tetlock&#8217;s book <em>Superforecasting<\/em> and <em>How to Measure Anything<\/em> by Douglas W. Hubbard. Since then, he&#8217;s consulted for Open Philanthropy on calibration training and attaching forecasts to grants, and worked for the OpenAI Foresight team, measuring progress in artificial intelligence and the factors that go into it, in order to inform experts&#8217; understanding and predictions about where the field is going.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/podcast\/episodes\/danny-hernandez-forecasting-ai-progress\/\" class=\"btn btn-tertiary\">Learn more<\/a><\/p>\n<\/aside>\n<aside class=\"well well-person pull-right clearfix align-center  padding-top-small padding-bottom-small\">\n<p class=\"no-margin-bottom\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"img-circle well-person__portrait\" height=300 width=300 src=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/julia_galef.jpg\" alt=\"Julia Galef portrait\"><\/p>\n<h4 class=\"no-margin-top\">Julia Galef<\/h4>\n<p>Julia worked as a freelance journalist before co-founding the <a href=\"http:\/\/rationality.org\">Center for Applied Rationality<\/a>, co-hosting the podcast <a href=\"http:\/\/rationallyspeakingpodcast.org\/\">Rationally Speaking<\/a> (which she still runs today), and starting a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/user\/measureofdoubt\/feed\">YouTube channel<\/a> with tens of thousands of followers. From there, she wrote a popular non-fiction book, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/dp\/B089CJ6SVS\/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&#038;btkr=1\"><em>The Scout Mindset<\/em><\/a>, to popularise ideas around improving human judgement. All of these projects are part of her broader effort to build an intellectual community of influential people across a range of different fields, who are genuinely trying to be truth-seeking and resolve disagreements in a productive way.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/podcast\/episodes\/is-it-time-for-a-new-scientific-revolution-julia-galef-on-how-to-make-humans-smarter\/\" class=\"btn btn-tertiary\">Learn more<\/a><\/p>\n<\/aside>\n<h2><span id=\"how-to-assess-your-fit\" class=\"toc-anchor\"><\/span>How to assess your fit?<\/h2>\n<p>To assess if this path might be a good fit for you, consider these questions:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Might you be able to get a job in a relevant area of government? <\/li>\n<li>Do you know how to influence choices within a bureaucracy?<\/li>\n<li>On the research path, do you have a chance of getting into a relevant PhD at a top 30 school?<\/li>\n<li>On the research path, do you have a chance at making a contribution to one of the relevant research questions? For instance, are you highly interested in the topic, and sometimes have ideas for questions to look into? Are you able to work independently for many days at a time? Are you able to stick with or lead a research project over many years? Read more about <a href=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/articles\/research-2\/\">predicting success in research<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><span id=\"how-to-enter\" class=\"toc-anchor\"><\/span>How to enter<\/h2>\n<p>The first step is to gain relevant expertise. This is most naturally done by working on relevant techniques in a lab like Tetlock&#8217;s, or studying other important decision-making processes in a graduate programme. However, you could also take a more practical route by starting your career in government and policy, and learning about the science on the side.<\/p>\n<p>Once you have the expertise, you can either try to make progress on key research questions in the field, or work with an important organisation to improve their processes. We can introduce you to people working on this.<\/p>\n<p>This is a nascent field that could become much bigger, and now is an exciting time to get involved.<\/p>\n<h3><span id=\"recommended-organisations\" class=\"toc-anchor\"><\/span>Recommended organisations<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/aiimpacts.org\/\">AI Impacts<\/a> works on forecasting progress in machine intelligence and predicting its likely impacts. See <a href=\"https:\/\/aiimpacts.org\/jobs\/\">current vacancies<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/thedecisionlab.com\/\">The Decision Lab<\/a> is a socially conscious applied research firm that is dedicated to empowering the world to make better decisions. See <a href=\"https:\/\/careers.thedecisionlab.com\/\">current vacancies<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/goodjudgment.com\/\">Good Judgment<\/a> was cofounded by Professor Philip Tetlock. This for-profit company maintains a global network of elite &#8216;superforecasters&#8217; who collaborate to tackle clients&#8217; forecasting questions with unparalleled accuracy. <\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.metaculus.com\/questions\/\">Metaculus<\/a> is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. See <a href=\"https:\/\/apply.workable.com\/metaculus\/\">current vacancies<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.openphilanthropy.org\/\">Open Philanthropy<\/a> uses an approach inspired by effective altruism to identify high-impact giving opportunities across a wide range of problem areas, shares this research freely online, and uses it to advise top philanthropists on where to give. See <a href=\"https:\/\/www.openphilanthropy.org\/careers\/\">current vacancies<\/a>. <em>Disclaimer of conflict of interest: we have received a grant from Open Philanthropy.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/quantifieduncertainty.org\/\">The Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute<\/a> aims to advance forecasting and epistemics to improve the long-term future of humanity, which it does by conducting research and making software.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3><span id=\"want-one-on-one-advice-on-pursuing-this-path\" class=\"toc-anchor\"><\/span>Want one-on-one advice on pursuing this path?<\/h3>\n<p>Because this is one of our priority paths, if you think this path might be a great option for you, we\u2019d be <em>especially<\/em> excited to advise you on next steps, one-on-one. We can help you consider your options, make connections with others working in the same field, and possibly even help you find jobs or funding opportunities.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"\/speak-with-us\/?int_campaign=career-review-generic\" title=\"\" class=\"btn btn-primary\">APPLY TO SPEAK WITH OUR TEAM<\/a><\/p>\n<h3><span id=\"find-jobs-in-forecasting-research-and-implementation\" class=\"toc-anchor\"><\/span>Find jobs in forecasting research and implementation<\/h3>\n<p>If you think you might be a good fit for this path, see our curated list of job opportunities on our <a href=\"\/job-board\/\">job board<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"learn-more\" class=\"toc-anchor\"><\/span>Learn more<\/h2>\n<h3><span id=\"top-recommendations\" class=\"toc-anchor\"><\/span>Top recommendations<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/2017\/11\/prof-tetlock-predicting-the-future\/\">Prof Tetlock on predicting catastrophes, why to keep your politics secret, and when experts know more than you<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Podcasts: <a href=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/podcast\/episodes\/philip-tetlock-forecasting-research\/\">Accurately predicting the future is central to absolutely everything. Professor Tetlock has spent 40 years studying how to do it better<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/podcast\/episodes\/prof-tetlock-predicting-the-future\/\">Phil Tetlock on predicting catastrophes, why keep your politics secret, and when experts know more than you<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-Philip-Tetlock\/dp\/0804136718\"><em>Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction<\/em><\/a> by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner (2016)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3><span id=\"further-recommendations\" class=\"toc-anchor\"><\/span>Further recommendations<\/h3>\n<h4>Key reading<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"\/problem-profiles\/improving-institutional-decision-making\/\">Our problem profile on improving institutional decision-making<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4>Other resources<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Podcast: <a href=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/podcast\/episodes\/ezra-karger-forecasting-existential-risks\/\">Ezra Karger on what superforecasters and experts think about existential risks<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Podcast: <a href=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/podcast\/episodes\/nate-silver-effective-altruism-sbf-art-of-risk\/\">Nate Silver on making sense of SBF, and his biggest critiques of effective altruism<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Podcast: <a href=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/podcast\/episodes\/danny-hernandez-forecasting-ai-progress\/\">Danny Hernandez on forecasting and the drivers of AI progress<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/How-Measure-Anything-Intangibles-Business-ebook\/dp\/B00INUYS2U\/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&amp;keywords=how+to+measure+anything&amp;qid=1589546685&amp;s=books&amp;sr=1-1\"><em>How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business<\/em><\/a> by Douglas W. Hubbard (2014)<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/career-reviews\/policy-oriented-civil-service-uk\/\">Our civil service career review<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/career-reviews\/think-tank-research\/\">Our think tanks career review<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/career-reviews\/academic-research\/\">Could academic research be for you?<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Some <a href=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/2020\/09\/good-judgement\/\">notes on good judgement and how to develop it<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"tw--mt-6 tw--p-3 tw--pt-2 tw--bg-gray-lighter tw--rounded-md \">\n<h3 class=\"no-toc\">\t\t<a class=\"no-visited-styling tw--text-off-black hover:tw--text-off-black hover:tw--no-underline focus:tw--text-off-black\" href=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/career-reviews\/\">\t\t\t<small>Read next:&nbsp;<\/small>\t\t\tLearn about other high-impact careers\t\t<\/a>\t<\/h3>\n<div class=\"tw--grid xs:tw--grid-flow-col tw--gap-3\">\n<div class=\"xs:tw--order-last tw--pt-1\">\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/career-reviews\/\">\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/HomepageB-3-720x448.jpg\" alt=\"Decorative post preview\" width=\"720\" height=\"448\">\t\t\t<\/a>\t\t<\/div>\n<div class=\"\">\n<div class=\"tw--pb-3\">\n<p>Want to consider more paths? See our list of the highest-impact career paths according to our research.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"\">\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/career-reviews\/\" class=\"btn btn-primary\">Continue &rarr;<\/a>\t\t\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"well visible-if-not-newsletter-subscriber margin-bottom margin-top padding-top-small padding-bottom-small\">\n<h3 class=\"no-toc\">Plus, join our newsletter and we&#8217;ll mail you a free book<\/h3>\n<p>Join our newsletter and we&#8217;ll send you a free copy of <em>The Precipice<\/em> \u2014 a book by philosopher Toby Ord about how to tackle the greatest threats facing humanity. <a href=\"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/free-book\/#giveaway-terms\">T&#038;Cs here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<form data-80k-object-id=\"\" data-80k-form-action=\"newsletter__subscribe\" action=\"\/\" method=\"post\" class=\"form-newsletter-signup form-newsletter-signup-step-1 margin-bottom-smaller\">\n<div class=\"mc-field-group input-group compact-input-group \"> <input type=\"email\" value=\"\" name=\"email\" required class=\"form-control email\" placeholder=\"Email address\" id=\"input_email\"> <span class=\"submit input-group-btn input-group-btn-right\"> <input type=\"submit\" id=\"mc-embedded-subscribe\" value=\"GET THE BOOK\" class=\"btn btn-primary \" \/> <\/span> <\/div>\n<div> <input name=\"_eightyk_action\" value=\"mailchimp_add_subscriber\" type=\"hidden\"> <input name=\"redirect_path_after_step_2\" value=\"\/newsletter\/welcome\/\" type=\"hidden\"> <\/div>\n<div style=\"position: absolute; left: -5000px;\"> <input type=\"text\" name=\"b_abc12f58bbe8075560abdc5b7_43bc1ae55c\" tabindex=\"-1\" value=\"\"> <\/div>\n<\/form>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":74451,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"template":"template-standard-article.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1206,375,1193,398,24],"class_list":["post-74447","career_profile","type-career_profile","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-decision-making","category-economics-phd","category-forecasting-research-implementation","category-institutional-decision-making","category-in-research"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.3 - 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