{"id":42846,"date":"2018-10-01T09:54:16","date_gmt":"2018-10-01T09:54:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/?post_type=career_profile&p=42846"},"modified":"2024-11-06T15:45:18","modified_gmt":"2024-11-06T15:45:18","slug":"academic-research","status":"publish","type":"career_profile","link":"https:\/\/80000hours.org\/career-reviews\/academic-research\/","title":{"rendered":"Academic research"},"content":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":75534,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"[fn a] Less than [0.1% of the population today are academics](https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20160521141817\/http:\/\/www.richardprice.io\/post\/12855561694\/the-number-of-academics-and-graduate-students-in), and this proportion was likely much smaller throughout history.[\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn b] Bethe, Hans (1997) \"[J. Robert Oppenheimer 1904-1967](https:\/\/www.nap.edu\/read\/5737\/chapter\/12)\". Biographical Memoirs. Washington, D.C. United States National Academy of Sciences. 71: 175-218.[\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn c] \"Green Revolution technology saved an estimated one billion people from famine and produced more than enough food for a world population that doubled from three to six billion between 1960 and 2000.\" [Archived link](https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20181105075219\/http:\/\/www.fao.org\/news\/story\/en\/item\/80096\/icode\/), retrieved 5-Nov-2018.[\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn d] Turing, A. M. (1937). \"[On Computable Numbers, with an Application to the Entscheidungsproblem](https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/plms\/article-abstract\/s2-42\/1\/230\/1491926?redirectedFrom=fulltext)\". Proceedings of the London Mathematical Society. 2. 42 (1): 230\u2013265. [\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn e] Full disclosure: Giving What We Can is part of the Centre for Effective Altruism, which also serves as the parent charity of 80,000 Hours. Without Peter Singer, there's a good chance 80,000 Hours would not exist, either! [\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn f] A [recent survey of leaders in the EA community](https:\/\/80000hours.org\/2017\/11\/talent-gaps-survey-2017\/#whats-the-key-bottleneck-for-the-effective-altruism-community) asked what skills they wanted to see more in the community as a whole - and found that specialist expertise in subjects such as machine learning and biology were perceived to be of medium importance (though not as important as more generalist skills such as management and policy expertise.)[\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn g] \"We present a wide range of evidence from various industries, products and firms showing that research effort is rising substantially while research productivity is declining sharply. A good example is Moore's law. The number of researchers required today to achieve the famous doubling every two years of the density of computer chips is more than 18 times larger than the number required in the early 1970s.\" Bloom, N., Jones, C. I., Van Reenen, J., & Webb, M. (2017). [Are ideas getting harder to find?](https:\/\/web.stanford.edu\/~chadj\/IdeaPF.pdf) National Bureau of Economic Research.[\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn h] Simonton, D. K. (1988). [Age and Outstanding Achievement: What Do We Know After a Century of Research?](https:\/\/pdfs.semanticscholar.org\/7123\/a6d022ce352d5326c6617e7677150bf96f8f.pdf). Psychological Bulletin, Vol. 104, No.2, 251-267[\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn i] \"Differences in rates of scientific production are much bigger than differences in the rates of performing simpler acts, such as the rate of running the mile, or the number of words a man can speak per minute... a large number of factors are involved so that small changes in each, all in the same direction, may result in a very large change in output. For example, the number of ideas a scientist can bring into awareness at one time may control his ability to make an invention and his rate of invention may increase very rapidly with this number.\"\r\nShockley, W. (1957) [On the statistics of individual variations of productivity in research laboratories](https:\/\/www.gwern.net\/docs\/iq\/1957-shockley.pdf). Proceedings of the IRE, 45(3), 279-290.[\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn j] See Figure 1 of [Bloom et al, (2017)](https:\/\/web.stanford.edu\/~chadj\/IdeaPF.pdf)[\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn k] One caveat here is that while the very best researchers may be much more productive than average, it may be very difficult to predict in advance who those researchers will be, even with a lot of information about a researcher's personal fit and potential. This is because there is an element of luck here - two young researchers might have similar abilities, but one may have more early successes than the other due to luck, and then find it easier to get subsequent research funding, academic positions, publications etc. - in a way that's self-fulfilling.[\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn l] Bonetta, L. (2009) \"[The Evolving Postdoctoral Experience](https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/evolving-postdoctoral-experience)\". Science Magazine[\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn m] Ghaffarzadegan, N., Hawley, J., Larson, R., & Xue, Y. (2015). [A Note on PhD Population Growth in Biomedical Sciences](https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pmc\/articles\/PMC4503365\/). Systems Research and Behavioral Science, 23(3), 402\u2013405. http:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/sres.2324[\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn n] Source: [Which are the highest paying jobs?](https:\/\/80000hours.org\/articles\/highest-paying-jobs\/), based on Lockwood, Benjamin B, Nathanson, Charles and Weyl, E. Glen, \"[Taxation and the Allocation of Talent](https:\/\/papers.ssrn.com\/sol3\/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1324424)\" (April 25, 2016). Journal of Political Economy, Forthcoming[\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn o] Average faculty salaries, 2015-2016, based on data from the annual faculty salary report by the College ad University Professional Association for Human Resources, reported by [Insider Higher Ed](https:\/\/www.insidehighered.com\/news\/2016\/03\/28\/study-finds-continued-large-gaps-faculty-salaries-based-discipline).[\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn p] \"According to the National Research Council's report \"[Bridges to Independence](https:\/\/www.nap.edu\/catalog\/11249\/bridges-to-independence-fostering-the-independence-of-new-investigators-in),\" the age of first independent faculty appointments for Ph.D.s has been rising steadily from 34 in 1979 to 38 in 2003\", Bonetta, L. (2009) \"[The Evolving Postdoctoral Experience](https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/evolving-postdoctoral-experience)\". Science Magazine[\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn q] Roe obtained difficult problems in verbal, spatial and mathematical reasoning from the Educational Testing Service, and created three tests which were administered to the 64 scientists. The same tests were also administered to a cohort of PhD students, who also took standard IQ tests, which were used to normalise the V, S, & M tests. The median \"normalised\" scores for verbal, spatial and mathematical reasoning amongst the 64 scientists were 166, 137 and 154 respectively - the median IQ of the PhD graduates tested was 141. The median scientists' score on the spatial test *was* lower than the median score of PhD graduates, but Roe notes that spatial reasoning scores correlate with age - younger men are likely to get higher scores - so the comparison with PhD graduates is not so direct (i.e. the scientists may have scored higher than the average PhD student when they were the same age.) \r\n
\r\n\r\nSee Roe, A. (1952) [The Making of a Scientist](https:\/\/www.dropbox.com\/s\/i7raf2aup5pdpgy\/1953-roe-makingscientist.pdf).[\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn r] Park, G., Lubinski, D., and Benbow, C. (2007). [Contrasting Intellectual Patterns Predict Creativity in the Arts and Sciences: Tracking Intellectually Precocious Youth Over 25 Years.](http:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1111\/j.1467-9280.2007.02007.x) Psychological Science, 18, 11, pp. 948-952[\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn s] Lubinski, D., Benbow, C., Kell, H. (2014). [Life Paths and Accomplishments of Mathematically Precocious Males and Females Four Decades Later](http:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/10.1177\/0956797614551371). Psychological Science, 25, 12, pp.2217-2232[\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn t] Clynes, T. (2016) [How to raise a genius: lessons from a 45-year study of super-smart children](http:\/\/www.nature.com\/news\/how-to-raise-a-genius-lessons-from-a-45-year-study-of-super-smart-children-1.20537). Nature 537, 152-155[\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn u] Kuncel, N., Hezlett, S., Ones, D. (2001). [A Comprehensive Meta-Analysis of the Predictive Validity of the Graduate Record Examinations: Implications for Graduate School Selection and Performance](https:\/\/psycnet.apa.org\/record\/2001-16276-008). Psychological Bulletin, 127, 1, 162-181[\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn v] Ericsson, K.A. (2006). [The influence of experience and deliberate practice on the development of superior expert performance](https:\/\/pdfs.semanticscholar.org\/f202\/ff185048777e0544affac38bb324e92d4fce.pdf). The Cambridge handbook of expertise and expert performance 38, 685-705 [\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn w] \"We found that deliberate practice explained 26% of the variance in performance for games, 21% for music, 18% for sports, 4% for education, and less than 1% for professions. We conclude that deliberate practice is important, but not as important as has been argued.\" Macnamara, B. N., Hambrick, D. Z., & Oswald, F. L. (2014). [Deliberate Practice and\r\nPerformance in Music, Games, Sports, Education, and Professions A Meta-Analysis](https:\/\/scholarship.rice.edu\/bitstream\/handle\/1911\/76260\/Oswald_Deliberate_Practice.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y). Psychological Science 25(8), 1608-1618[\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn x] \"Rather than define talent as a mysterious phenomenon that operates independent of domain-specific expertise, talent is best conceived as a process that openly involves that expertise. In different terms, scientific achievement is not a matter of either talent or training but rather a matter of talent operating in the context of that training... A person is certainly not born with a diffuse 'gift' for science. Instead, the natural endowment most likely consists of a weighted composite of numerous and highly specific intellectual and personality characteristics.\" Simonton, D.K. (2008). [Scientific Talent, Training, and Performance: Intellect, Personality, and Genetic Endowment](https:\/\/www.gwern.net\/docs\/psychology\/2008-simonton.pdf). Review of General Psychology 12(1), 28-46[\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn y] Chamorro\u2010Premuzic, Tomas, and Adrian Furnham. \"Personality traits and academic examination performance.\" European journal of Personality 17.3 (2003): 237-250.[\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn z] Poropat, Arthur E. \"A meta-analysis of the five-factor model of personality and academic performance.\" Psychological bulletin 135.2 (2009): 322.[\/fn]\r\n\r\n\r\n[fn aa] Clauset, A., Arbesman, S., Larremore, D.B. (2015). [Systematic inequality and hierarchy in faculty hiring networks](http:\/\/advances.sciencemag.org\/content\/1\/1\/e1400005.full). Science Advances, 1, 1[\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn ab] Russo, G. (2010). [For love and money](https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20181109040807\/https:\/\/www.nature.com\/naturejobs\/science\/articles\/10.1038\/nj7301-1104a). Nature 465, 1104-1107[\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn ac] This is the best place to understand the true relationship between IQ and academic performance rather than later in the education system, because at later stages lower-IQ people have already dropped out, so other factors beyond IQ will account for more of the variance.[\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn ad] Hunter, John E. \"Cognitive ability, cognitive aptitudes, job knowledge, and job performance.\" Journal of vocational behavior 29.3 (1986): 340-362.[\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn ae] Hunter, John E, Frank L Schmidt, and Michael K Judiesch. \"Individual differences in output variability as a function of job complexity.\" Journal of Applied Psychology 75.1 (1990): 28.[\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn af] \"Although GMA predicts performance in all jobs the more complex the job is13, the stronger the relationship between GMA and performance.14 And the more complex the job, the more variation there is between top performers and bottom performers.15 So if you have one of the highest levels of GMA in a highly complex job, you'll have a high output compared to the average performer.\" [Intelligence matters more than you think for career success.](https:\/\/80000hours.org\/2013\/05\/intelligence-matters-more-than-you-think-for-career-success\/)[\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn ag] \"At one extreme, some fields are characterized by relatively early peaks, usually around the early 30s or even late 20s in chronological units, with somewhat steep descents thereafter, so that the output rate becomes less than one quarter the maximum. This agewise pattern apparently holds for such endeavors as lyric poetry, pure mathematics, and theoretical physics, for example. At the contrary extreme, the typical trends in other endeavors may display a leisurely rise to a comparatively late peak, in the late 40s or even 50s chronologically, with a minimal if not largely absent drop-off afterward. This more elongated curve holds for such domains as novel writing, history, philosophy, medicine, and general scholarship, for instance.\" From Simonton, Dean K. \"Age and outstanding achievement: What do we know after a century of research?.\" Psychological Bulletin 104.2 (1988): 251.[\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn ah] \"On a population level, we see that the average doctor is 30 IQ points higher than the average janitor, that college professors are overwhelmingly high-IQ, and we think yeah, this is about what we would hope for from a statistic measuring intelligence. But on an individual level, we see that below-average IQ people sometimes become scientists, professors, engineers, and almost anything else you could hope for.\" [Against Individual IQ Worries](http:\/\/slatestarcodex.com\/2017\/09\/27\/against-individual-iq-worries\/), SlateStarCodex.[\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn ai] Von Stumm, S., Hell, B., & Chamorro-Premuzic, T. (2011). [The hungry mind: Intellectual curiosity is the third pillar of academic performance](https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/10.1177\/1745691611421204). Perspectives on Psychological Science, 6(6), 574-588.[\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn aj] \"There are no significant differences in academic achievement between the High IQ - Low Creative and Low IQ - High Creative groups. This supports the findings reported by Getzels and Jackson (1962), Torrance (1959) and Yamamoto (1964a) of equivalent academic achievement among the highly intelligent and highly creative groups.\" Palaniappan, A. K. (2007, July). [Academic achievement of groups formed based on creativity and intelligence](http:\/\/www.ep.liu.se\/ecp\/021\/vol1\/020\/exp2107020.pdf). In The 13th International Conference on Thinking Norrk\u00f6ping; Sweden June 17-21; 2007 (No. 021, pp. 145-151). Link\u00f6ping University Electronic Press.[\/fn]\r\n\r\n\t\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n[fn rob] [\"Prospect\/FP Top 100 Public Intellectuals Results\".](https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20051025155541\/http:\/\/www.foreignpolicy.com\/story\/cms.php?story_id=3260) October 15, 2005. [\/fn]\r\n\r\n\r\n[fn chapman] Wikipedia contributors. \"Bruce Chapman (Australian economist).\" Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia, 12 Oct. 2017. Web. 25 Jul. 2018. [\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn RS] Taylor, Martin, Ben Martin, and James Wilsdon. The scientific century: securing our future prosperity. The Royal Society, 2010. [\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn larson] Larson, Richard C., Navid Ghaffarzadegan, and Yi Xue. \"Too many PhD graduates or too few academic job openings: the basic reproductive number R0 in academia.\" Systems research and behavioral science 31.6 (2014): 745-750. [\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn navid] Ghaffarzadegan, Navid, et al. \"A note on PhD population growth in biomedical sciences.\" Systems Research and Behavioral Science 32.3 (2015): 402-405. [\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn Andalib] Andalib, Maryam A., Navid Ghaffarzadegan, and Richard C. Larson. \"The Postdoc Queue: A Labour Force in Waiting.\" Systems Research and Behavioral Science (2016). [\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn salary] \"Study Finds Continued Large Gaps in Faculty Salaries, Based on Discipline.\" Esports Quickly Expanding in Colleges, Scott Jaschik, Inside Higher Ed, [Archived link, retrieved 9-Nov-2018](https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20181109040957\/http:\/\/www.insidehighered.com\/news\/2016\/03\/28\/study-finds-continued-large-gaps-faculty-salaries-based-discipline) [\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn kellogg] Jones, Benjamin, E. J. Reedy, and Bruce A. Weinberg. Age and scientific genius. No. w19866. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2014. [\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn nature2] Julie Gould. [The elephant in the lab.](http:\/\/blogs.nature.com\/naturejobs\/2015\/02\/17\/the-elephant-in-the-lab\/) NatureJobs Blog 2015.[\/fn] \r\n\r\n[fn attrition] Ph.D. Completion and Attrition: Analysis of Baseline Program Data from the Ph.D. Completion Project. [Downloadable here.](https:\/\/cgsnet.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/phd_completion_and_attrition_analysis_of_baseline_demographic_data-2.pdf)[\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn academiaiq]See figures 7-12: Hauser, Robert Mason. Meritocracy, cognitive ability, and the sources of occupational success. Madison, Wis, USA: Center for Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin, 2002.[\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn turing][Alan Turing: The codebreaker who saved 'millions of lives'](https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20181105074211\/https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/technology-18419691), BBC News, 19 June 2012.[\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn hesli]Hesli, Vicki L., and Jae Mook Lee. \"Job satisfaction in academia: Why are some faculty members happier than others?.\" PS: Political Science & Politics 46.2 (2013): 339-354.[\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn xi]Here is what three researchers we interviewed said about how valuable talented researchers were relative to research funding:\r\n
\r\n\r\nSir Andrew McMichael, leading HIV vaccine researcher<\/b>\r\n
\r\n\r\nFor the good person who's CV you just described, would you prefer their CV landing on your desk or an extra grant?\r\n
\r\n\r\n\"It's not a simple choice. If they're that good, they'll probably get their own funding at some point. You can take them on without huge risk. I would always take the person.\"\r\nHow about if you could have half a million pound grant?\r\n
\r\n\r\n\"It's hard to turn down half a million pounds. I wouldn't know many groups who would. You could buy another machine or do another project that would be too expensive otherwise. It depends on how much money I've got there already. It's fantastic to get good people though, no question.\"\r\n
\r\n\r\nCan good researchers always get funding?\r\n
\r\n\r\n\"Yes, reasonably easily. Everyone can get bad patches. It's unusual to always be on top of everything. For instance, you can get a dip at the end of a line of work, while you're getting ready to start something else. But on the whole they can.\"\r\n
\r\n\r\nJohn Todd, a Professor of Medical Genetics at Cambridge<\/b>\r\n
\r\n\r\nWould you prefer \u00a3100,000 per year or [a good person] working for you?\r\n
\r\n\r\n\"Definitely the guy\"\r\n
\r\n\r\nHow about \u00a30.5mn per year?\r\n
\r\n\r\n\"I'd still the take the person at \u00a30.5mn. By \u00a35mn, I'd prefer the money! There's a cut off somewhere between the two.\"\r\n
\r\n\r\nWhy would you pay so much?\r\n
\r\n\r\n\"It's very difficult to find brilliant people who have the true grit to get things done, even if it takes a long time. Most of them end up in the city.\"\r\n
\r\n\r\n\"The best people are the biggest struggle. The funding isn't a problem. It's getting really special people. I call them the one percenters\u2026If you have a good person, it's easy to get the grants for them. I don't think there's a really good researcher out there who couldn't get funding from the MRC or Wellcome Trust.\"\r\n
\r\n\r\n\"One good guy can cover the ground of 5, and I'm not exaggerating\"\r\n
\r\n\r\nKatie Ewer, a cellular immunologist<\/b>\r\n
\r\n\r\nIs your impression is that it's harder to find good researchers or additional funding?\r\n
\r\n\r\n\"In order for research to progress, you need lots of different types of people within an organization. You need people who are very methodical in what they do and are capable of doing large volumes of high through-put work, and then you need a few people at the top with the creativity to pull ideas out of the sky that nobody else would ever think of and convince Bill Gates to give you \u00a31 million. I guess if you have somebody like that in your institution who is that creative and has that amazing ability and insight, then you can probably convince people to give you \u00a31 million. But funding is always limited. We could proceed our field more quickly if we had as much funding as the HIV field.\"\r\n
\r\n\r\n\"If you are uniquely gifted in scientific research, then you should probably be a scientific researcher. But for the other 99.9% of the population, they're probably best going and earning \u00a31 million elsewhere and funding research.\"[\/fn]\r\n\r\n[fn xii] \"Ten Famous Psychology Findings That It's Been Difficult To Replicate\" by Christian Jarrett, September 16, 2016. [Archived link, retrieved 1-Oct-2018](https:\/\/www.web.archive.org\/web\/20181001093634\/https:\/\/digest.bps.org.uk\/2016\/09\/16\/ten-famous-psychology-findings-that-its-been-difficult-to-replicate\/)[\/fn]\r\n"},"categories":[383,342,1319,1193,1189],"class_list":["post-42846","career_profile","type-career_profile","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-academic-research","category-careers","category-fields","category-forecasting-research-implementation","category-research-into-global-priorities"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAcademic research - Career review<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Are academic careers a good option if you want to have a positive impact? 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